Washington, D.C. (June 27, 2024) – PSG Consulting, in collaboration with Democracy Corps, sponsored and designed a comprehensive study exploring voter reactions to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The unique research sheds light on the sentiments of key voter groups that will determine the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.

The study included 374 participants, with a particular emphasis on the “deciders” — dual haters/double negatives (voters who dislike both candidates), third-party voters and white unmarried women. Black voters, Hispanic voters and millennial/Gen Z voters were among the participants as well.

“The data highlights the importance of double negatives and unmarried women in this election,” said Page Gardner, President and Founder of PSG Consulting. “Their impact on the 2024 elections will be significant and will decide the next occupant of the White House.”

Participants completed surveys before and after watching the debate, which included open-ended questions on key issues. During the debate, they used dial meters to indicate their reactions to statements made by each candidate. This dual-survey method, supplemented by AI-generated analysis of the open-ended responses, provided deeper insights into voter perceptions.

Key Findings

• 54 percent of respondents said Biden won the debate.

• President Biden maintained steady support among white unmarried women, who showed strong resistance to another Trump term.

• President Biden’s vote margin decreases by 8 points when all candidates are included. He goes from 55-28 to 51-32. The biggest losses are with third-party, Black and Hispanic voters.

• In a two-way vote, President Biden loses 6 points, going from 65-35 to 62-38. The biggest drops are with double negatives and third-party voters. 

• Double negative voters are an important target. There is a significant shift among double negatives when going from a vote choice with all candidates to one with only two. Biden loses one point post-debate with all candidate choices, but 14 points when it is a forced choice between President Biden and Trump.

“The data reveals a surprising resilience among white unmarried women in supporting President Biden, which is a critical insight for the campaign. This demographic is the most fearful of a second Donald Trump presidency,” said Gardner. “Double negatives, who are estimated to be as large as 25% of the electorate, need to be reached, as their shifting allegiances depending on candidate choice could be decisive in such a closely contested election.”

Read key findings and takeaways by downloading the comprehensive dial group research and report crosstabs below: