Washington, D.C. (August 16, 2024) – PSG Consulting and Innovating for the Public Good today revealed crucial insights into the political inclinations and concerns of unmarried women under the age of 55 in battleground states. The unique two-part survey, conducted in collaboration with Lake Research Partners and Alper Strategies & Media, found that these women are Democratic in their attitudes, values and voting preferences. In each state, this demographic is not only a significant voting bloc but also redefining political priorities and issues in the electoral landscape.
Unmarried women under 55 constitute a significant portion of the electorate in battleground states, with over a million in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and hundreds of thousands in Arizona, Nevada, Montana and Wisconsin. The study polled 801 registered voters across these nine states, finding that their votes could be the margin of victory in closely contested races up and down the ballot.
“This survey shows the strong support for Democrats in 2024, but also points to challenges with their enthusiasm and lower levels of support than in previous presidential elections. And, there are clear differences in the strategies needed for various segments of this population,” said Page Gardner, President and Founder of PSG Consulting. ”
Key Findings
Voting Preferences: A majority of surveyed women (56%) would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris if the presidential election were held today, with 47% expressing strong support. Donald Trump receives a meager 27% support. Similarly, 56% would vote for the Democratic candidate in a generic House ballot, compared to 26% for the Republican candidate, with 12% still undecided.
Key Differences by Race: While white overall voters remain a difficult target, unmarried white women under age 55 are a key persuasion target and one of the few white groups Democrats lead. Among them, Democrats lead with 45% identifying as Democrats, compared to 42% identifying as Republicans, with Harris leading Trump by ten points (46%-36%). In the generic House ballot, 47% support the Democrat and 34% support the Republican.
Black unmarried women under 55 are a key turnout target as well. Three quarters would vote for the Democratic candidate in a generic House ballot and would vote for Kamala Harris (76%, respectively). A majority of unmarried Latinas under 55 give the majority of their votes to Harris and House Democrats, but the vote needs solidifying (54% Harris, 56% House candidates).
Overall, these numbers are below traditional support levels for presidential and House candidates. In 2008, the percentage of single female voters who voted for Barack Obama over John McCain was 70%.
Enthusiasm and Motivation: Compared to previous elections, there is still an “enthusiasm gap,” with only 59% feeling very motivated. Intensity and motivation to vote among this group should be in the 70-80% range. This lack of motivation underscores their deep sense that their voices and votes do not matter and that the system is corrupt and rigged.
A plurality of younger unmarried women feel like they are losing power in the United States today (41%), with 35% saying their power is about the same, and only 14% say they are gaining power. However, they are very enthusiastic about the election in general now that Vice-President Harris is the nominee, with a majority (58%) feeling more excited about the election following the announcement of her likely Democratic nomination. These women associate Harris with qualities such as being a fighter, providing hope and being on their side.
Issue Preference: The survey found that these women are deeply worried about affording rent or housing (50% very worried), losing basic rights and freedoms like access to reproductive health care (46%), and taxes increasing beyond what they can afford (46%). Notably, 57% believe that these critical issues are more likely to be addressed if Democrats control Congress and the White House.
“Mobilizing unmarried women under 55 is a key constituency that can be the margin of victory. These women respond to messages where they see themselves, tap into their populist economic concerns, and provide clear comparative information on abortion and daily economics,” said Celinda Lake, President, Lake Research Partners.
“Once again, this survey demonstrates the critical importance of unmarried women in securing candidate wins, from the top of the ticket to local elections. They are an enormous voting bloc, and it is malpractice not to target these women for persuasion and turnout,” concluded Gardner. “This data provides a roadmap for any candidate to secure the support of unmarried women. From message testing to issue concerns, this is a rich and unique set of data that is actionable.”
Download the findings on the gender gap in the 2024 election, full press release, memo, findings slides, fact sheet and a research-backed communications toolkit for this key demographic below: