In partnership with Innovating for the Public Good: R&D for Democracy and PSG Consulting, TargetSmart conducted qualitative research measuring the sentiment of nearly 100 voters around the September 10, 2024, presidential debate. The research used live dials and a pre-debate and post-debate survey with an audience of swing voters and Democratic-leaning mobilization targets in the top seven presidential battleground states. We measured a pronounced and profound positive impact for Vice President Kamala Harris based on her performance using moment-to-moment dials, hot button analysis, and metrics ranging from head-to-head support and favorability to specific candidate traits and issue trust.
The results of this study reinforce the narrative that VP Harris scored a big win over former President Donald Trump in the first, and probably only, debate between the candidates.
Some important moments that stood out in the debate and may come as a surprise to some include:
Voters reacted very positively to moderator fact-checking and to citations of those fact-checks by VP Harris.
There is no evidence in this study that VP Harris’ non-verbal communication or facial expressions generated any backlash. While previous debates saw that moments, like George H.W. Bush checking his watch or Al Gore sighing, distracted from the candidates’ substantive performance, nothing like that appeared to have happened during this debate.
The abortion exchange went about as badly for Trump and as well for VP Harris as possible. While not necessarily surprising, the intensity of feeling was off the charts, and Trump’s lies about the murder of newborn infants did not resonate at all.
VP Harris made some of her biggest gains of the night on the question of which candidate is more “for working people,” where she gained +26 points versus Trump, taking a 74% to 14% advantage on that trait after the debate.
Read key findings and takeaways by downloading the memo and slide decks below.