Which group of voters will determine who wins the White House? Which voting group should the pundits follow? One group that could determine the next President of the United States is what I have labeled as “Double Negatives.”
In traditional American politics, the electorate is divided among strong and weak supporters of both major party presidential nominees and so-called “swing voters.”
But now, as we approach the 2024 election, another important group of voters may determine the outcome of the presidential election in key battleground states. These voters strongly dislike both President Biden and Donald Trump and those that sort themselves into Never Both/Third Party Voters.
The “Double Negatives”
According to a number of surveys, including a major national survey of battleground states conducted by Democracy Corps, nearly a quarter of the potential electorate falls into this category of individuals who either strongly or somewhat reject the presumed presidential nominees from both major parties. Some of these are third-party voters, those who won’t show up at the polls or those that can be persuaded. The latter group is often young, would vote for a Democrat and includes a large number of people of color.
These voters could decide the 2024 election. Yet, there has been a lack of sustained effort to develop a new, more accurate and more nuanced way to identify who these voters are, what motivates their political behavior and how to appeal to those who are persuadable.
That is why a team of demographers, data analysts and electoral experts are developing a model to target Double Negatives and develop actionable programs.
It’s no secret why large numbers of voting-age Americans are down on both candidates and tempted by the challenger, even if he’s a former President who presided over medical, constitutional and economic crises.
In another recent survey, 76 percent of eligible voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction. However, the same survey found that President Biden and down-ballot Democrats can prevail with a message of helping Americans economically, creating American jobs, and protecting Social Security and abortion rights.
To be sure, this isn’t the first election where many voters are dissatisfied with both major party candidates. However, the growing cohort of Double Negatives will have an outsized influence in 2024, especially considering their willingness to consider a third-party candidate.
The Plan
We are building our targeting model with a large-scale survey of voters in the battleground states, including those where Senate races as well as the presidential election will be closely contested (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin).
This survey will establish a roadmap for credibly connecting with these highly cynical voters and separate those who would default to Trump, move to President Biden or opt for a third-party candidate.
To target those turned off by conventional politics, distinct messaging strategies should be tested based on their receptivity to Biden, Trump and/or third-party candidates. As the target audiences vary significantly, tailored messages are crucial to resonating with each group’s preferences. There remains an opportunity to explore how best to reach eligible voters who are disillusioned with the political system and the presidential candidates of both major parties.
The Outreach
As one of the least engaged groups in every aspect of civic life, Double Negative voters reject “political news” as well as seemingly partisan information from “biased” sources.
Sadly, in a democracy that depends on an informed citizenry, local newspapers are closing down or cutting back coverage in many media markets. Even major outlets like the LA Times are slashing their newsrooms.
With the decline in local news, newspaper programs aimed at target audiences, delivered by mail and featuring local news have shown promise. These initiatives reach voters, informing them not only of news in their area but also about various candidates and races. For skeptical voters, both types of information can be imparted most effectively by credible sources outside of partisan politics.
There’s still time to test how to reach eligible voters disillusioned with the political system and the presidential candidates of both major parties. These voters need to be identified and targeted by a sustained information campaign that focuses on local news and is longer in duration than the traditional political messaging and delivery mechanisms. Most of the content would be centered on community news, with information about the candidates and choices included as part of the publication.
These programs and other tactics are needed to communicate appropriate messages to key segments of the Double Negatives. The destiny of American democracy depends on informing and engaging these voters.
In mathematics, a double negative can be a positive. In 2024, democracy’s defenders need to tap the positive potential in Double Negative voters’ receptivity to messages that transcend or break through their skepticism of politics as usual.