An extensive, one-of-a-kind, three-part research project sponsored by PSG Consulting and conducted by Democracy Corps was recently completed to determine voter sentiment ahead of the 2024 elections. The project consisted of (1) web dial groups to judge voter reaction to seeing and hearing different presidential candidates in a variety of settings; (2) focus groups of the fractured Republican electorate; and then, (3) an extensive survey of battleground presidential, senate, gubernatorial and congressional geographies. The insights from the web dials and focus groups informed the structure and substance of the final battleground survey.
Voters are currently gripped by fear and anger, with an astonishing 76 percent believing the country is on the wrong track. They want real change, however, loosely defined. Worries about inflation and their precarious economic circumstances dominate. Crime and homelessness are real concerns of large portions of the Democratic base, particularly Black and Asian Americans. Negative polarization and partisan sentiments drive much of the choice in a Trump versus Biden matchup, with supporters of both candidates envisioning a country they no longer recognize if the opposing side is elected.
President Biden’s standing with the base of the Democratic Party is weak. While his achievements have been historic, they are not immediately felt nor are they experienced as having materially changed the circumstances for most Americans. The policies that brought immediate benefits, like the Child Tax Credit and student loan forgiveness or deferral, have been taken away, and pandemic benefits have ended. Life has become harder, not easier, for many since Biden was elected. Although lowering health care and prescription drug costs is recognized as an important achievement, the majority of its benefits won’t be realized until 2024.
President Biden has a way back to win the sentiments of key voting segments and secure an Electoral College victory. This survey points to some of the underlying dynamics driving the 2024 elections. It reveals the challenges Democrats face, and the opportunities to confront the real threats posed by MAGA Republicans on every level of government.
This survey demonstrates that campaigning on the fear and consequences of a Trump presidency is necessary, but not sufficient. Trump enjoys somewhat higher approval ratings on key measures and the majority of votes among most of the Democratic base of young people, unmarried women, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians and the LGBTQ+ community over Biden. Voters are hungry for a leader who will fight for them and reverse the longstanding trend of increasing corporate power at the expense of working Americans.
President Biden and the Democrats need to be very clear that they are fighting for everyday Americans. Acknowledging rising prices and the struggles of American families and individuals to make ends meet is essential. However, contrasts, current and historic, need to be made. Democrats have and are trying to provide help for American families. The Republican ruling majority has done everything it can to defund American families. The strongest narrative tested in the poll is Biden shifting economic power away from the big corporations and those who have benefitted from the Republican tax breaks to those who work around the clock to put food on the table. The most popular policy is raising big corporations and ultra-wealthy taxes.
This powerful argument results in a 12-point margin, building on the existing strengths and accomplishments of Biden and the Democrats while creating a future choice that emphasizes their commitment to reducing family costs, protecting Social Security, defending the right to an abortion and creating American jobs. It attacks Republicans for blocking help to families, threatening Social Security and promoting corporate interests.
It is encouraging, though, that President Biden in a recent tweet said, “We’ve made real progress getting breathing room for families. But I know prices are still too high for so many. That’s why I’m fighting every day and calling on corporations to lower costs for families, even as Republicans in Congress focus on lowering taxes for the wealthy.”
There are other dynamics that go beyond the Biden/Trump rematch, and these could be determinative. However, there is a larger structure to the race, which includes threats posed by third-party candidates and double haters. Third-party candidates make Biden’s climb back harder. Double haters break for Trump.
And, what about Nikki Haley? She could be a viable choice among key segments of the electorate. The web dials demonstrated her appeal to both Democrat and Republican voters’ potential. She runs even with Biden in this survey in the presidential battleground states.
Republicans have spent years trying to dismantle the public sector and undercut the ability of the government to serve people. They have systematically under-resourced federal and state governments through tax cuts, tax breaks and their spending priorities. Biden and congressional Democrats need to address the underlying dissatisfaction with democratic institutions and the ability of government and Democrats to deliver for working Americans to counteract this undercutting of the public sector. Voters decide who to support based on emotions and whether candidates speak to their values, fears and aspirations. Whoever speaks to these will win.